PRICE CONTINUES TO BE KEY…The number of sales (transactions), the average price, and the median price are all basically the same as last month. The one change is that compared to a year ago (April 2011 saw a significant drop), the number of sales are up 26%. Even though we have a slight shortage of properties on the market, overpriced properties are not selling, so price is still very important.
STATUS QUO…the number of sales in real estate are up 9%, so that’s good. Prices are up a meager 1.8% from last year at this time. The inventory of property on the market is lower than usual which usually causes prices to go up, however interest rates going up a few weeks ago will likely keep that from happening. It appears that we will see a modest or little appreciation this year unless something drastic happens.
CALGARY IS TOPS!…Calgary is one of the most affordable cities in the country to own a home. The average price of a home compared to the average income in this city make it so. To own a home here, buyers need to budget about 35% of their pretax income. In Vancouver, the most expensive city to live, buyers have to budget 86% of their pretax income. Calgary is at its most affordable level in six years, which is great news for the anticipated migration to the City, and ultimately for the health of our economy.
NEW MLS HPI (Home Price Index)…Home sales are off to a slow start as expected for this time of year, but all indicators are still pointing towards price stability. In partnership with the major local real estate boards from Calgary, Vancouver, Toronto and Montreal, the Canadian Real Estate Association (CREA) developed the HPI. The HPI identifies turning points sooner and is the most current and accurate gauge for Canadian home prices. You can view it online at http://homepriceindex.ca/hpi_tool_en.html.
CREB is calling for an increase in prices and sales for 2012. This is the first real estate forecast that comes close to what I’ve been saying. It’s modest but a step in the right direction. Click on link below for the article…
Most popular price points in Calgary for Single Family homes: $300,000 – $400,000 range – represents about 34% of all Single Family sales.
Most popular price points in Calgary for Condos: $200,000 – $300,000 range – represents about 43% of all Condo sales.
A new rule change implemented by the Calgary Real Estate Board gives the seller of a property the option of not reporting that it is conditionally sold (C/S) on the MLS system, and keeping the conditionally sold sticker off the for sale sign.
The number of residential sales in 2011 increased by 8% compared to 2010. Despite the increase over the last year, it is important to realize that the number of sales in 2011 was still 17% below the City’s average. A step in the right direction, yes, but things are still not back to normal. A significant amount of migration to Calgary is forecasted in 2012. This should help stimulate the number of sales (transactions), but prices will likely stay the same or only change by 1-2%. Until the overall economy improves, the price of real estate will not change much.
Some experts are projecting “at best” we will see a 2.6% growth in the overall economy in 2012, and that it could be less than 1%. Some in the real estate industry are suggesting that Calgary could see a 7% increase next year. I believe for that to happen migration will need to increase by leaps and bounds. Without a huge increase in migration, and assuming interest rates stay low (as projected), real estate in Calgary will not likely change much in price or in number of sales. We are moving in the right direction but modestly, and not likely as much as 7% in 2012.
WHAT’S REALLY HAPPENING?…Most reports on real estate this year have been comparing it with 2010. Compared to 2010, the number of homes sold is up 8-9%. We are heading in the right direction. However, 2010 was the worst year for number of homes sold in more than 10 years. Taking the average of the last 10 years, 2011 will still be approximately 16% below the average, and will be the 2nd worst year in more than 10 years for number of homes sold. Calgary appears to be better off than most other places in the world, so hopefully numbers continue to rise.
| The data included on this website is deemed to be reliable, but is not guaranteed to be accurate by the Calgary Real Estate Board |
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| Trademarks used under license from CREA |
